diff --git a/portfolio-theory.qmd b/portfolio-theory.qmd index 579308c..04ae0ef 100644 --- a/portfolio-theory.qmd +++ b/portfolio-theory.qmd @@ -144,17 +144,20 @@ and a variance $$ \sigma_\mathrm{min}^2 = \vec{w}_\mathrm{min}^\intercal \, V \, \vec{w}_\mathrm{min} = \left( \frac{\vec{1}^\intercal \, V^{-1}}{a} \right) V \left( \frac{V^{-1} \, \vec{1}}{a} \right) = \frac{\vec{1}^\intercal \, V^{-1} \, \vec{1}}{a^2} = \frac{1}{a} $$ -The *tangent portfolio* is +The *tangent portfolio* is the maximum-Sharpe portfolio, and so it depends on the +risk-free rate of return, $r_\mathrm{f}$, as well as on $\vec{\mu}$ and $V$. +It is derived in the section on the [One-fund theorem](#one-fund-theorem) below; +quoting the result here because it is one of the two funds we want: -$$ \vec{w}_\mathrm{tan} = \frac{V^{-1} \, \vec{\mu}}{b} = \frac{V^{-1} \, \vec{\mu}}{\vec{1}^\intercal \, V^{-1} \, \vec{\mu}} $$ +$$ \vec{w}_\mathrm{tan}(r_\mathrm{f}) = \frac{V^{-1} \, (\vec{\mu} - r_\mathrm{f} \, \vec{1})}{\vec{1}^\intercal \, V^{-1} \, (\vec{\mu} - r_\mathrm{f} \, \vec{1})} = \frac{V^{-1} \, (\vec{\mu} - r_\mathrm{f} \, \vec{1})}{b - a \, r_\mathrm{f}} $$ It has a return -$$ r_\mathrm{tan} = \vec{w}_\mathrm{tan} \cdot \vec{\mu} = \frac{\vec{\mu}^\intercal \, V^{-1} \, \vec{\mu}}{b} = \frac{c}{b} $$ +$$ r_\mathrm{tan} = \vec{w}_\mathrm{tan} \cdot \vec{\mu} = \frac{c - b \, r_\mathrm{f}}{b - a \, r_\mathrm{f}} $$ and a variance -$$ \sigma_\mathrm{tan}^2 = \vec{w}_\mathrm{tan}^\intercal \, V \, \vec{w}_\mathrm{tan} = \left( \frac{\vec{\mu}^\intercal \, V^{-1}}{b} \right) V \left( \frac{V^{-1} \, \vec{\mu}}{b} \right) = \frac{\vec{\mu}^\intercal \, V^{-1} \, \vec{\mu}}{b^2} = \frac{c}{b^2} $$ +$$ \sigma_\mathrm{tan}^2 = \vec{w}_\mathrm{tan}^\intercal \, V \, \vec{w}_\mathrm{tan} = \frac{(\vec{\mu} - r_\mathrm{f} \, \vec{1})^\intercal \, V^{-1} \, (\vec{\mu} - r_\mathrm{f} \, \vec{1})}{(b - a \, r_\mathrm{f})^2} = \frac{a \, r_\mathrm{f}^2 - 2 \, b \, r_\mathrm{f} + c}{(b - a \, r_\mathrm{f})^2} $$ The efficient frontier can be written as a linear combination of any two efficient portfolios. This is discussed in more detail in the section on [Fund theorems](#fund-theorems). @@ -162,18 +165,28 @@ Written as a combination of the minimum variance and the tangent portfolios give $$ \vec{w}_{\ast} = \psi \, \vec{w}_\mathrm{min} + (1-\psi) \, \vec{w}_\mathrm{tan} $$ -where +where, solving $r_{\ast} = \psi \, r_\mathrm{min} + (1-\psi) \, r_\mathrm{tan}$ for $\psi$ +and using $r_\mathrm{tan} - r_\mathrm{min} = d \, / \, [\,a \, (b - a \, r_\mathrm{f})\,]$, -$$ \psi = (c - b \, r_{\ast}) \, a \, / \, d $$ +$$ \psi = \frac{a \, \left[ (c - b \, r_{\ast}) + r_\mathrm{f} \, (a \, r_{\ast} - b) \right]}{d}, \qquad 1 - \psi = \frac{(a \, r_{\ast} - b) \, (b - a \, r_\mathrm{f})}{d} $$ + +Both weights carry $r_\mathrm{f}$, because which frontier portfolio the tangent +portfolio is depends on $r_\mathrm{f}$. The efficient frontier portfolio can be equivalently written \begin{align} \vec{w}_{\ast} &= \psi \, \vec{w}_\mathrm{min} + (1-\psi) \, \vec{w}_\mathrm{tan} \\ - &= \left( \frac{c - b \, r_{\ast}}{d} \right) a \, \vec{w}_\mathrm{min} + \left( \frac{a \, r_{\ast} - b}{d} \right) b \, \vec{w}_\mathrm{tan} \\ + &= \left( \frac{(c - b \, r_{\ast}) + r_\mathrm{f} \, (a \, r_{\ast} - b)}{d} \right) V^{-1} \, \vec{1} + \left( \frac{a \, r_{\ast} - b}{d} \right) V^{-1} \, (\vec{\mu} - r_\mathrm{f} \, \vec{1}) \\ &= \left( \frac{c - b \, r_{\ast}}{d} \right) V^{-1} \, \vec{1} + \left( \frac{a \, r_{\ast} - b}{d} \right) V^{-1} \, \vec{\mu} \end{align} +using $a \, \vec{w}_\mathrm{min} = V^{-1} \vec{1}$ and +$(b - a \, r_\mathrm{f}) \, \vec{w}_\mathrm{tan} = V^{-1} (\vec{\mu} - r_\mathrm{f} \vec{1})$ +in the second line. The $r_\mathrm{f}$ terms cancel in the third, as they must: the +frontier is a property of $\vec{\mu}$ and $V$ alone. Only the *decomposition* into two +funds depends on $r_\mathrm{f}$. + Along the frontier, the return is $$ r_{\ast} = \psi \, r_\mathrm{min} + (1-\psi) \, r_\mathrm{tan} $$ @@ -182,9 +195,34 @@ The variance is $$ \sigma^2_{\ast} = \frac{a}{d} \, r_{\ast}^{2} - \frac{2 \, b}{d} \, r_{\ast} + \frac{c}{d} $$ -TODO: Note calculation order of $\vec{w}_\mathrm{min}(\mu, V)$ -and $\vec{w}_\mathrm{tan}(\mu, V, r_\mathrm{f})$, then calculate $r_{\ast}(\sigma_{\ast})$, -scanning from $\sigma_\mathrm{min}$ to $\sigma_\mathrm{max}$. +which has no $r_\mathrm{f}$ in it either, consistent with the frontier being independent +of the risk-free rate. + +::: {.callout-warning title="The last line is the one to implement"} +$\psi$ and $\vec{w}_\mathrm{tan}$ both depend on $r_\mathrm{f}$ and only their combination +does not, so the two have to be taken at the same $r_\mathrm{f}$. Mixing a +$\vec{w}_\mathrm{tan}(r_\mathrm{f})$ with coefficients derived at some other rate +$r_\mathrm{f}'$ --- the $\psi = (c - b \, r_{\ast}) \, a \, / \, d$ of the +$r_\mathrm{f}' = 0$ case is the one usually quoted --- returns weights that still sum to +one and still lie on the frontier, and so survive the obvious checks, but they are the +frontier portfolio for the return + +$$ r_{\ast} + \left( r_{\ast} - r_\mathrm{min} \right) \frac{r_\mathrm{f} - r_\mathrm{f}'}{r_\mathrm{min} - r_\mathrm{f}} $$ + +rather than for $r_{\ast}$. The error vanishes at $r_{\ast} = r_\mathrm{min}$, so a spot +check at the minimum-variance point will not see it, and it diverges as +$r_\mathrm{f} \rightarrow r_\mathrm{min}$. Only $\vec{w}_{\ast} \cdot \vec{\mu} = r_{\ast}$ +catches it. + +The last line above avoids the issue: it contains no $r_\mathrm{f}$, and needs only +$V^{-1} \vec{1}$ and $V^{-1} \vec{\mu}$. +::: + +To scan out the frontier: compute $a$, $b$, $c$, $d$ from $\vec{\mu}$ and $V$, then step +$r_{\ast}$ over the range of interest, taking $\vec{w}_{\ast}$ from the last line above +and $\sigma_{\ast}$ from $\sigma^2_{\ast}$. Neither step needs $\vec{w}_\mathrm{min}$ or +$\vec{w}_\mathrm{tan}$, so neither inherits any rounding or clipping applied to those two +for reporting. ![The "Markowitz Bullet", the efficient frontier shown in @Markowitz_1959_Portfolio_Selection_Efficient_Diversification, p. 152. @@ -397,7 +435,8 @@ introducing or varying the risk-free rate of return, which portfolio along the frontier that is the tangent portfolio will depend on the risk-free rate of return. -The *tangent portfolio with a risk-free asset* is +The *tangent portfolio with a risk-free asset*, quoted above in the +[two-fund](#two-fund-theorem) discussion, is $$ \vec{w}_\mathrm{tan} = \frac{V^{-1} \, (\vec{\mu} - r_\mathrm{f} \, \vec{1})}{\vec{1}^\intercal \, V^{-1} \, (\vec{\mu} - r_\mathrm{f} \, \vec{1})} $$ @@ -407,7 +446,7 @@ $$ r_\mathrm{tan} = \vec{\mu} \cdot \vec{w}_\mathrm{tan} = \frac{c - b \, r_\mat and a variance -$$ \sigma_\mathrm{tan}^{2} = \frac{\left|\vec{\mu} - r_\mathrm{f} \, \vec{1}\right|^2}{ (\vec{\mu} - r_\mathrm{f} \, \vec{1})^\intercal \, V^{-1} \, (\vec{\mu} - r_\mathrm{f} \, \vec{1})} = \frac{a \, r_\mathrm{f}^2 - 2 \, b \, r_\mathrm{f} + c}{(b - a \, r_\mathrm{f})^2} $$ +$$ \sigma_\mathrm{tan}^{2} = \frac{ (\vec{\mu} - r_\mathrm{f} \, \vec{1})^\intercal \, V^{-1} \, (\vec{\mu} - r_\mathrm{f} \, \vec{1}) }{ \left( \vec{1}^\intercal \, V^{-1} \, (\vec{\mu} - r_\mathrm{f} \, \vec{1}) \right)^2 } = \frac{a \, r_\mathrm{f}^2 - 2 \, b \, r_\mathrm{f} + c}{(b - a \, r_\mathrm{f})^2} $$ The tangent portfolio is the portfolio with the maximum [Sharpe ratio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio), $S_i$.