↗ proofcast

Predictions are cheap. Proof is not.

The forecasting intelligence & cryptographic accountability layer built natively for Somnia DreamDEX Event Contracts.

  ┌──────────────┐     ┌──────────────┐     ┌──────────────┐     ┌──────────────┐     ┌──────────────┐
  │  01. OBSERVE │ ──> │02. UNDERSTAND│ ──> │  03. COMMIT  │ ──> │  04. ANCHOR  │ ──> │  05. PROVE   │
  │   DreamDEX   │     │  EventForge  │     │   EIP-712    │     │Somnia Anchor │     │ Brier Scores │
  └──────────────┘     └──────────────┘     └──────────────┘     └──────────────┘     └──────────────┘

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Important

Core Product Thesis: Prediction markets show what the crowd prices. ProofCast records what a forecaster believed before the outcome was known, preserves why they believed it, and measures whether that judgment was empirically calibrated.

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🏛️ The 7-Step Verified Lifecycle

ProofCast transforms speculative market noise into immutable decision intelligence across 7 deterministic phases:

$$\mathbf{OBSERVE} \longrightarrow \mathbf{UNDERSTAND} \longrightarrow \mathbf{CHALLENGE} \longrightarrow \mathbf{COMMIT} \longrightarrow \mathbf{ANCHOR} \longrightarrow \mathbf{RESOLVE} \longrightarrow \mathbf{PROVE}$$

graph LR
  subgraph Phase1 [1. Intelligence]
    A[01. Observe: DreamDEX Signals] --> B[02. Understand: EventForge AI]
    B --> C[03. Challenge: Counter-Thesis]
  end

  subgraph Phase2 [2. Commitment]
    C --> D[04. Commit: EIP-712 Receipt]
    D --> E[05. Anchor: Somnia Smart Contract]
  end

  subgraph Phase3 [3. Accountability]
    E --> F[06. Resolve: Automated Settlement]
    F --> G[07. Prove: Brier Calibration]
  end

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🌐 Native Somnia & DreamDEX Architecture

ProofCast is engineered from the ground up for the Somnia High-Performance L1 Blockchain (Chain ID: 50312) and the DreamDEX Prediction Market Protocol:

 ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
 │                         SOMNIA BLOCKCHAIN ECOSYSTEM                         │
 ├──────────────────────────────────────┬──────────────────────────────────────┤
 │         DreamDEX Protocol            │        ProofCast Protocol            │
 │  • Binary Event Contracts            │  • EventForge Multi-Model AI Engine  │
 │  • Order Book Spread & Depth         │  • SHA-256 Decision Receipts         │
 │  • ERC-6909 Outcome Tokens           │  • ProofCastAnchor.sol Contract      │
 │  • Automated Contract Settlement     │  • Payable Native $SOM Staking       │
 │  • Official @somnia-chain/markets-sdk│  • Soulbound Forecaster Badges (SBT) │
 └──────────────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────────────┘

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⚡ Implemented Capabilities (Source of Truth)

1. 📡 Live Somnia DreamDEX Market Discovery

• SDK Integration: Direct live querying via @somnia-chain/markets-sdk reading Somnia DreamDEX binary event pools.
• Order Book Microstructure: Real-time bid/ask spreads, midpoints, depth levels, and time-to-expiry.
• Honest Telemetry States: Explicit LIVE, STALE, UNAVAILABLE, and ERROR states with a 5-second in-memory TTL cache to eliminate redundant indexer load.

2. 🧠 EventForge Dual-Layer AI Engine & SSE Streaming

• Layer A (Deterministic Microstructure Engine): Pure mathematical model calculating objective fair value based on order-book depth imbalance, spread penalty, and time decay. Output is 100% deterministic: identical market inputs yield identical probability outputs.
• Layer B (Multi-Model AI Reasoning & Live Streaming): Async structured inference generating Bull Case, Bear Case, Counter-Thesis, and Disagreement Analysis across supported models (Microstructure, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, and Meta-Ensemble).
• Server-Sent Events (SSE): Mounted at GET /api/eventforge/stream for real-time token-by-token reasoning streaming.

Note

Hard Invariant: The deterministic mathematical model is completely isolated from LLM output. AI models cannot alter numerical probabilities, fabricate order books, or mutate market prices.

3. 🎯 Triangulated Comparison & Executable Edge

• 3-Way Comparison: Visual comparison between Market Mid-Price, EventForge Fair Value, and User Forecast.
• Deterministic Market Quality: Classifies markets into "TRADEABLE" | "WATCH" | "NO_TRADE".
• True Executable Edge: Calculates net edge after accounting for spread crossing and execution friction.

4. 🔏 Cryptographic EIP-712 Receipts & Evidence Hashing

• EIP-712 Typed Signing: Standardized typed data verification (domain: { name: "ProofCast", chainId: 50312 }, primary type: ForecastCommitment) verified via viem.
• SHA-256 Digest: Freezes market snapshot, probability, direction, thesis, counter-thesis, and timestamp into an immutable 32-byte hash.
• Parent-Linked Revision Chains: Historical forecasts are never overwritten; corrections create parent-linked forecast_revisions.

5. 🛡️ Somnia Smart Contract Anchoring & Staking (ProofCastAnchor.sol)

• Non-Custodial Anchoring: Stores (receiptHash, marketId, timestamp, owner, stakeAmount).
• Payable $SOM Staking: anchorReceiptWithStake() allows forecasters to stake native Somnia tokens behind high-conviction predictions.
• Soulbound Forecaster Badges: recordForecasterBadge() registers verified reputation tiers (GOLD_MASTER, SILVER, BRONZE, UNRANKED) directly on-chain.

6. ⚙️ Automated Resolution Worker & Oracle Webhooks

• Automated Daemon Worker: server/resolutionWorker.ts polls on-chain DreamDEX settlement status every 60 seconds without manual admin bottlenecks.
• Oracle Webhook: POST /api/oracle/resolve enables instant settlement for UMA / Chainlink oracles with ORACLE_WEBHOOK_SECRET authentication.
• Automated Stake Resolution: Automatically transitions stakes to WON, LOST, or REFUNDED.

7. 📊 Brier Calibration & Soulbound Reputation Tiers

• Strict Brier Scoring: Dimensionless $BS = (f - o)^2 \in [0, 1]$, where $0.000$ represents perfection.
• Lead-Time Logarithmic Weighting: Skill bonus for early commitments ($w = 1 + \ln(1 + \Delta t / 86400)$).
• 5-Bin Empirical Calibration: Evaluates reliability across $[0-20%]$, $[20-40%]$, $[40-60%]$, $[60-80%]$, $[80-100%]$.
• Reputation Tier Matrix:

  Tier	Title	Requirements
  🥇 Gold Master	Gold Master Oracle	$\ge 30$ verified receipts, $BS \le 0.12$, Accuracy $\ge 70%$
  🥈 Silver	Silver Superforecaster	$\ge 15$ verified receipts, $BS \le 0.18$, Accuracy $\ge 60%$
  🥉 Bronze	Bronze Forecaster	$\ge 5$ verified receipts, $BS \le 0.25$, Accuracy $\ge 50%$
  🔰 Unranked	Unranked Apprentice	$< 5$ verified receipts

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🏗️ System Architecture

graph TD
  subgraph Client [Client Layer: React 19 / Vite]
    Landing[Landing Page & Live Telemetry]
    Signal[Signal Room & Market Discovery]
    Decision[Market Decision Workspace]
    Profile[Proof Profile & Receipt Archive]
    Leaderboard[Leaderboard & SBT Badges]
  end

  subgraph Server [Server Layer: Express / tRPC]
    TRPC[tRPC API Router]
    DreamDEXService[DreamDEX Snapshot Service]
    EventForgeEngine[EventForge Multi-Model AI]
    SSEHandler[SSE Token Stream /api/eventforge/stream]
    WorkerDaemon[Automated Resolution Worker]
    OracleWebhook[Oracle Webhook /api/oracle/resolve]
    ScoringEngine[Brier Scoring & Calibration Engine]
  end

  subgraph Somnia [Somnia Shannon Testnet: Chain 50312]
    DreamDEXContracts[DreamDEX Binary Event Contracts]
    AnchorContract[ProofCastAnchor.sol Smart Contract]
  end

  subgraph Database [Database: Drizzle ORM / MySQL]
    DBSnapshots[(market_snapshots)]
    DBForecasts[(forecasts)]
    DBReceipts[(decision_receipts)]
    DBRevisions[(forecast_revisions)]
    DBResolutions[(receipt_resolutions)]
  end

  Signal --> TRPC
  Decision --> TRPC
  Decision --> SSEHandler
  Profile --> TRPC
  Leaderboard --> TRPC
  TRPC --> DreamDEXService
  TRPC --> EventForgeEngine
  TRPC --> ScoringEngine
  TRPC --> DBSnapshots
  TRPC --> DBForecasts
  TRPC --> DBReceipts

  DreamDEXService --> DreamDEXContracts
  WorkerDaemon --> DreamDEXContracts
  WorkerDaemon --> DBResolutions
  OracleWebhook --> DBResolutions

  Decision -. User Staking .-> AnchorContract
  Profile -. Verify Anchor .-> AnchorContract

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🔒 Web3 Security & Trust Model

Security Dimension	Enforcement Mechanism
Zero Private Key Custody	All transactions and EIP-712 hashes are signed in the browser wallet via RainbowKit / Viem. The server never handles private keys.
Model Invariance	Layer A deterministic calculations are mathematically isolated from LLM output. AI cannot modify probabilities or prices.
Cryptographic Immutability	Commitments produce a SHA-256 digest anchored permanently to ProofCastAnchor.sol on Somnia.
Webhook Authentication	POST /api/oracle/resolve requires valid ORACLE_WEBHOOK_SECRET authentication to prevent unauthorized resolution spoofing.
Duplicate Prevention	ProofCastAnchor.sol reverts with AlreadyAnchored on replay attempts for previously anchored receipt hashes.

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🧪 Quality Gate & Test Verification

# Run full unit & integration test suite (9 test files, 42 tests)
npx vitest run

# Run strict TypeScript typechecking (0 errors)
npx tsc --noEmit

# Run production build
npm run build

 RUN  v2.1.9 /home/oyeolorun/ProofCast

 ✓ server/auth.logout.test.ts (1 test)
 ✓ server/comparisonMotion.test.ts (3 tests)
 ✓ server/dreamdex.test.ts (3 tests)
 ✓ server/eventforge.multimodel.test.ts (5 tests)
 ✓ server/eventforge.test.ts (7 tests)
 ✓ server/oracle.staking.test.ts (5 tests)
 ✓ server/receipts.test.ts (16 tests)
 ✓ server/scoring.api.test.ts (1 test)
 ✓ server/scoring.integration.test.ts (1 test)

 Test Files  9 passed (9)
      Tests  42 passed (42)
 TypeScript  0 diagnostics (tsc --noEmit clean)
 Build       Clean production bundle (135.0 kB)

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📌 GitHub Repository Metadata (For Right-Hand Sidebar)

Use the following settings for the repository's "About" section on GitHub:

• Description:

  Forecasting intelligence & cryptographic accountability platform for Somnia DreamDEX Event Contracts. Multi-model AI reasoning, EIP-712 SHA-256 Decision Receipts, payable $SOM staking, on-chain Soulbound reputation badges, and automated Brier calibration.

• Website:

  https://proofcast.somnia.network (or deployment domain)

• Topics / Tags:

  somnia, somnia-network, dreamdex, prediction-markets, eip-712, sha-256, brier-score, calibration, event-contracts, smart-contracts, solidity, typescript, trpc, web3, ai-reasoning, soulbound-tokens
  

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📜 License

ProofCast is open-source software licensed under the MIT License.