feat(roadmap): define launch success metrics baseline + 90-day targets

.github/workflows/deploy-gh-pages.yml

@@ -46,6 +46,9 @@ jobs:
       - name: Validate awards data
         run: npm run validate:awards
 
+      - name: Validate launch metrics
+        run: npm run validate:launch-metrics
+
       # Build for the GitHub Pages project URL. When the custom domain in
       # static/CNAME is verified and active, update these values to
       # SITE_URL=https://endusers.cncf.io and BASE_URL=/ so canonical and

ROADMAP.md

@@ -1,40 +1,50 @@
 # Roadmap: endusers.cncf.io
 
-This roadmap describes the planned evolution of the CNCF End User Community site.
-It is a living document; update it as priorities change. Tracking issue: #45.
+This roadmap describes the planned evolution of the CNCF End User Community
+site. It is a living document; update it as priorities change. Tracking issue:
+#45.
 
 ## Vision
 
-Be the trusted home of the CNCF End User Community: the place where organizations
-running cloud native in production find reference architectures, metrics, events,
-and pathways to participate.
+Be the trusted home of the CNCF End User Community: the place where
+organizations running cloud native in production find reference architectures,
+metrics, events, and pathways to participate.
 
 ## Guiding principles
 
-- **Audience first**: content serves end users (adopters), not project contributors.
+- **Audience first**: content serves end users (adopters), not project
+  contributors.
 - **Data over prose**: metrics, awards, and architectures are generated from
-  authoritative sources (cncf/landscape, cncf/architecture, cncf/tab), never hand-edited.
+  authoritative sources (cncf/landscape, cncf/architecture, cncf/tab), never
+  hand-edited.
 - **Verified facts**: every CNCF fact is backed by an authoritative source link.
-- **Green pipeline**: the site must always deploy; a broken deploy blocks everything.
+- **Green pipeline**: the site must always deploy; a broken deploy blocks
+  everything.
 
 ## Phase 0 — Foundation (current)
 
 Goal: a reliable, trustworthy site skeleton.
 
 - [ ] Restore a green deploy pipeline (blocked: see issue #44)
 - [x] Add a LICENSE (PR #40, issue #32)
-- [ ] Pin GitHub Actions by SHA and verify downloaded installers (issues #38, #39; PRs #41–#43)
-- [ ] Shared validation utilities and test coverage for data pipelines (issue #36, PR #37)
+- [ ] Pin GitHub Actions by SHA and verify downloaded installers (issues #38,
+      #39; PRs #41–#43)
+- [ ] Shared validation utilities and test coverage for data pipelines (issue
+      #36, PR #37)
 - [ ] This roadmap, plus GitHub milestones matching these phases (issue #45)
 
 ## Phase 1 — Content completeness
 
 Goal: every pillar section is accurate, current, and self-maintaining.
 
-- [ ] Architectures: automated import from cncf/architecture stays in sync (scheduled workflow exists; add freshness indicator on the page)
-- [ ] Metrics: scheduled refresh of data/metrics.json with validation gating the build
-- [ ] Awards: complete historical winner list, each entry verified against its cncf.io announcement
-- [ ] Community: current TAB membership, End User Groups, and engagement pathways
+- [ ] Architectures: automated import from cncf/architecture stays in sync
+      (scheduled workflow exists; add freshness indicator on the page)
+- [ ] Metrics: scheduled refresh of data/metrics.json with validation gating the
+      build
+- [ ] Awards: complete historical winner list, each entry verified against its
+      cncf.io announcement
+- [ ] Community: current TAB membership, End User Groups, and engagement
+      pathways
 - [ ] Events: upcoming end-user events at KubeCon + CloudNativeCon
 - [ ] Blog: establish a publishing cadence beyond the welcome post
 
@@ -43,7 +53,8 @@ Goal: every pillar section is accurate, current, and self-maintaining.
 Goal: the project can outlive any single maintainer.
 
 - [ ] MAINTAINERS.md with an explicit process for adding maintainers (issue #47)
-- [ ] Governance note describing review/merge expectations, including agent-automation policy
+- [ ] Governance note describing review/merge expectations, including
+      agent-automation policy
 - [ ] Good-first-issue curation to recruit human contributors
 - [ ] Decide the long-term home of the site (issue #46): transfer to a CNCF org,
       remain a personal staging site, or merge into an existing CNCF property
@@ -53,9 +64,40 @@ Goal: the project can outlive any single maintainer.
 Goal: endusers.cncf.io becomes the authoritative end-user destination.
 
 - [ ] DNS cutover to endusers.cncf.io (depends on Phase 2 ownership decision)
-- [ ] Cross-linking with contribute.cncf.io and cncf.io (clear audience boundaries)
+- [ ] Cross-linking with contribute.cncf.io and cncf.io (clear audience
+      boundaries)
 - [ ] Public feedback loop: content-issue templates and a visible changelog
 
+## Launch success metrics (tracking: #100)
+
+Goal: launch is measurable, not just announced. `data/launch-metrics.json` is
+the source of truth for the baseline (captured at the W-6 pre-launch checkpoint)
+and 90-day post-launch target for each signal. The table below is **generated
+from that file** — do not hand-edit it. Run `npm run sync:launch-metrics-table`
+after changing the JSON, and `npm run validate:launch-metrics` fails the build
+if the two drift apart.
+
+<!-- LAUNCH-METRICS-TABLE:START -->
+
+| Signal                                                     | Baseline (W-6 pre-launch checkpoint, 2026-08-08) | 90-day post-launch target |
+| ---------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------- |
+| GitHub stars                                               | 0                                                | 50                        |
+| GitHub watchers                                            | 0                                                | 15                        |
+| GitHub forks                                               | 1                                                | 8                         |
+| Good-first-issues claimed or closed by a non-maintainer    | 0                                                | 3                         |
+| Inbound links from cncf.io / contribute.cncf.io properties | 0                                                | 1                         |
+
+<!-- LAUNCH-METRICS-TABLE:END -->
+
+- [ ] Re-measure each signal at the 90-day mark and record the outcome in
+      `data/launch-metrics.json`, then re-run
+      `npm run sync:launch-metrics-table`.
+- [ ] Add site analytics (e.g. a privacy-respecting tool such as Plausible or
+      GoatCounter) so inbound-traffic signals can move beyond a manual check.
+
+Related: #90 (launch strategy), #98 (good-first-issue curation), #104 (launch
+window).
+
 ## Non-goals
 
 - Contributor-facing documentation (belongs on contribute.cncf.io)
@@ -64,7 +106,7 @@ Goal: endusers.cncf.io becomes the authoritative end-user destination.
 
 ## How this roadmap is maintained
 
-- Strategic gaps and reprioritizations are filed as GitHub issues by the strategist
-  agent and reviewed by the maintainer.
+- Strategic gaps and reprioritizations are filed as GitHub issues by the
+  strategist agent and reviewed by the maintainer.
 - Each phase maps to a GitHub milestone; issues and PRs are tagged accordingly.
 - This document is updated by planning PRs, not ad hoc edits.

data/launch-metrics.json

@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+{
+  "generated": false,
+  "note": "Hand-curated baseline snapshot for the site launch (issue #100). Unlike data/metrics.json, this is not refreshed by an automated pipeline — update it manually when a signal is re-measured, recording the new snapshot date. The ROADMAP.md launch-metrics table is generated FROM this file: run `npm run sync:launch-metrics-table` after any edit here, and `npm run validate:launch-metrics` fails if the two drift out of sync.",
+  "preLaunchCheckpointAt": "2026-08-08",
+  "checkpointLabel": "W-6 pre-launch checkpoint",
+  "inboundLinkMeasurementProcedure": "GitHub code search for the canonical repo URL restricted to the cncf.io/contribute.cncf.io properties' source repos: `gh search code \"cncf/endusers\" --owner cncf --repo cncf/foundation --repo cncf/contribute.cncf.io`. Re-run the identical query at the 90-day mark and record the resulting count as the new value; this keeps the measurement reproducible instead of an ad hoc manual search.",
+  "signals": [
+    {
+      "id": "github-stars",
+      "label": "GitHub stars",
+      "source": "https://github.com/cncf/endusers",
+      "historicalSource": "castrojo/endusers (pre-transfer GitHub account/repo path, not a live URL; account may be renamed/reused, so this is deliberately not rendered as a link; canonical repo is https://github.com/cncf/endusers)",
+      "baseline": 0,
+      "target90Day": 50,
+      "targetWindow": "90 days post-launch",
+      "note": "Repo-level engagement signal; cheapest to measure, easiest to game, tracked alongside the others rather than alone."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "github-watchers",
+      "label": "GitHub watchers",
+      "source": "https://github.com/cncf/endusers",
+      "historicalSource": "castrojo/endusers (pre-transfer GitHub account/repo path, not a live URL; account may be renamed/reused, so this is deliberately not rendered as a link; canonical repo is https://github.com/cncf/endusers)",
+      "baseline": 0,
+      "target90Day": 15,
+      "targetWindow": "90 days post-launch",
+      "note": "Proxy for people who want ongoing visibility into the project, not just a one-time star."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "github-forks",
+      "label": "GitHub forks",
+      "source": "https://github.com/cncf/endusers",
+      "historicalSource": "castrojo/endusers (pre-transfer GitHub account/repo path, not a live URL; account may be renamed/reused, so this is deliberately not rendered as a link; canonical repo is https://github.com/cncf/endusers)",
+      "baseline": 1,
+      "target90Day": 8,
+      "targetWindow": "90 days post-launch",
+      "note": "Baseline of 1 is the maintainer's own working fork, not an external contributor."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "good-first-issue-conversion",
+      "label": "Good-first-issues claimed or closed by a non-maintainer",
+      "source": "https://github.com/cncf/endusers/labels/good%20first%20issue",
+      "historicalSource": "castrojo/endusers/labels/good%20first%20issue (pre-transfer GitHub account/repo path, not a live URL; account may be renamed/reused, so this is deliberately not rendered as a link; canonical repo is https://github.com/cncf/endusers)",
+      "baseline": 0,
+      "target90Day": 3,
+      "targetWindow": "90 days post-launch",
+      "note": "Directly measures whether curated on-ramp issues (issue #98) convert visitors into contributors."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "inbound-links-cncf",
+      "label": "Inbound links from cncf.io / contribute.cncf.io properties",
+      "source": "see inboundLinkMeasurementProcedure above",
+      "baseline": 0,
+      "target90Day": 1,
+      "targetWindow": "90 days post-launch",
+      "note": "At least one authoritative CNCF property should link to this site by the 90-day mark; there is no analytics pipeline yet to measure traffic directly, so this uses the reproducible code-search procedure above until one is added."
+    }
+  ]
+}

package.json

@@ -40,6 +40,8 @@
     "validate:architecture-assets": "node scripts/validate-architecture-assets.mjs",
     "validate:button-contrast": "node scripts/validate-button-contrast.mjs",
     "validate:awards": "node scripts/validate-awards.mjs",
+    "validate:launch-metrics": "node scripts/validate-launch-metrics.mjs",
+    "sync:launch-metrics-table": "node scripts/sync-launch-metrics-table.mjs",
     "docusaurus": "docusaurus",
     "fix:format": "npm run _check:format -- --write",
     "fix": "npm run seq -- $(npm -s run _list:fix:*)",

scripts/lib/launch-metrics-table.mjs

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+// Shared table-generation logic used by both
+// scripts/sync-launch-metrics-table.mjs (writes ROADMAP.md) and
+// scripts/validate-launch-metrics.mjs (checks ROADMAP.md hasn't drifted
+// from data/launch-metrics.json without being re-synced).
+export const START = '<!-- LAUNCH-METRICS-TABLE:START -->';
+export const END = '<!-- LAUNCH-METRICS-TABLE:END -->';
+
+export function buildTable(data) {
+  const checkpointLabel = data.checkpointLabel || 'baseline';
+  const checkpointAt = data.preLaunchCheckpointAt || data.baselineSnapshotAt;
+  const header = `| Signal | Baseline (${checkpointLabel}, ${checkpointAt}) | 90-day post-launch target |`;
+  const divider = '| --- | --- | --- |';
+  const rows = (data.signals || []).map(
+    (s) => `| ${s.label} | ${s.baseline} | ${s.target90Day} |`,
+  );
+  return [header, divider, ...rows].join('\n');
+}
+
+// Prettier re-pads table column widths for readability, so a byte-for-byte
+// comparison between the generated table and what's committed would false-
+// positive on drift after every `npx prettier --write`. Normalize by
+// collapsing whitespace within each cell before comparing.
+export function normalizeTable(markdown) {
+  return markdown
+    .split('\n')
+    .filter((line) => !/^\|[\s-]*\|[\s-:]*\|[\s-:]*\|$/.test(line.trim()))
+    .map((line) =>
+      line
+        .split('|')
+        .map((cell) => cell.trim())
+        .join('|'),
+    )
+    .join('\n');
+}

scripts/sync-launch-metrics-table.mjs

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+// Regenerates the launch-metrics table in ROADMAP.md from
+// data/launch-metrics.json, which is the actual source of truth (issue
+// #100 review feedback: don't let a hand-maintained table drift from the
+// validated JSON). Run this after any edit to the JSON; CI verifies via
+// validate-launch-metrics.mjs --check that the two haven't drifted apart.
+import { readFileSync, writeFileSync } from 'node:fs';
+import { buildTable, START, END } from './lib/launch-metrics-table.mjs';
+
+const roadmapPath = new URL('../ROADMAP.md', import.meta.url);
+const data = JSON.parse(
+  readFileSync(new URL('../data/launch-metrics.json', import.meta.url)),
+);
+const roadmap = readFileSync(roadmapPath, 'utf8');
+
+const startIdx = roadmap.indexOf(START);
+const endIdx = roadmap.indexOf(END);
+if (startIdx === -1 || endIdx === -1 || endIdx < startIdx) {
+  console.error(
+    `Could not find ${START} / ${END} markers in ROADMAP.md — cannot sync table.`,
+  );
+  process.exit(1);
+}
+
+const before = roadmap.slice(0, startIdx + START.length);
+const after = roadmap.slice(endIdx);
+const updated = `${before}\n\n${buildTable(data)}\n\n${after}`;
+
+writeFileSync(roadmapPath, updated);
+console.log(
+  'Synced ROADMAP.md launch-metrics table from data/launch-metrics.json',
+);