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itsjustmarsel/README.md

Hi, I'm Marsel 👋

Independent researcher working on evaluation and measurement for ML systems — figuring out whether a model or method actually does what it claims, and saying so honestly when it doesn't.

Everything here follows the same rule: the plan is frozen before the run, negative results are reported next to the positive ones, and every number reproduces from a single command.

A few things I've built:

  • 🧪 llm-jury — six LLM judges vote on whether a RAG answer is hallucinated; together they beat any single one, and they caught real labeling errors in the benchmark itself.
  • 📈 driftbet — pinpoints what caused a data stream to drift (model, noise, the world, or bad labels) without labels, with statistical guarantees that hold at any stopping time.
  • 🔍 whest-teardown — reproduced a published estimator; a plain method beat it ~9×, and I found an accounting hole in its scoring.
  • 🔭 Plus a pre-registered null result on real Kepler photometry and a cross-model study of LLM belief revision — the same rigor, different fields.

📫 itsjustmarsel@gmail.com · LinkedIn

Popular repositories Loading

  1. llm-jury llm-jury Public

    Training-free committee-of-6 LLM judge for RAG hallucination detection: AUROC 0.88 / F1 0.77 on RAGTruth, reproducible at $0 from frozen verdicts — and it surfaces provable label errors in the benc…

    Python

  2. driftbet driftbet Public

    Label-free drift attribution (model / noise / world / annotator) with anytime-valid guarantees and a frozen pre-registration — closes the zero-label misattribution gap 0.50→0.00 on the recoverable …

    Python

  3. whest-teardown whest-teardown Public

    Reproducible teardown of ARC WhiteBox Estimation 2026: plain Monte Carlo beats the analytic reference ~9×, plus a 4.4× FLOP-accounting arbitrage in the scoring harness.

    Python

  4. photometry-escape-null photometry-escape-null Public

    A pre-registered null result on real Kepler photometry: comparator-channel escape-recovery came back contaminated — an earned negative with a frozen contract, sealed prediction, and a total decisio…

    Python

  5. axb-formal-defeater axb-formal-defeater Public

    How LLMs respond to an explicit formal defeater: a pre-registered cross-model test — tracking + propagating the defeater is a task property (5/5 models), refuting "advocacy without belief"; the "se…

  6. itsjustmarsel itsjustmarsel Public