Unify xG enhancement work into one reviewable integration branch by Copilot · Pull Request #23 · pbulsink/HockeyModel

Copilot · 2026-04-22T01:26:52Z

This PR consolidates the related xG enhancement streams that were previously split across separate PR branches, so model and adapter/backtest changes can be reviewed together as one coherent unit.

Branch consolidation
- Merged xG adapter/config work, xG blend-weight optimization, and xG params/backtest changes into a single integration line.
- Result is one branch containing the full xG improvement set instead of three partially overlapping PRs.
xG ingestion and adapter behavior
- Includes configurable xG data sourcing/caching path usage and corresponding adapter coverage.
- Keeps xG retrieval behavior aligned with model pipeline expectations.
Prediction model blending
- Incorporates blended goal/xG prediction flow with xg_weight support.
- Adds fitting logic for blend weight and integrates parameter propagation into model update/parse paths.
Backtesting support
- Adds blended backtest capability to compare goal-only, xG-only, and weighted predictions over historical windows.
Test coverage brought together
- Carries forward targeted tests for adapter path handling, xG scaling behavior, and xG weight blending/fitting.

# Representative blended prediction parameter shape now carried in params
params <- list(
  intercept = ...,
  home = ...,
  away = ...,
  xg_weight = 0.35
)

# Downstream prediction paths can consume params$xg_weight directly

Warning

Firewall rules blocked me from connecting to one or more addresses (expand for details)

I tried to connect to the following addresses, but was blocked by firewall rules:

cloud.r-project.org
- Triggering command: /opt/R/4.5.3/lib/R/bin/exec/R /opt/R/4.5.3/lib/R/bin/exec/R --quiet --vanilla -e install.packages(c("pak","devtools"),~+~repos="REDACTED") (dns block)
https://api.github.com/graphql
- Triggering command: /usr/bin/gh gh issue view 22 (http block)
- Triggering command: /usr/bin/gh gh pr close 16 --repo pbulsink/HockeyModel --comment Superseded by combined xG feature branch per issue #22; closing without merge. (http block)
https://api.github.com/repos/pbulsink/HockeyModel/pulls/16
- Triggering command: /usr/bin/gh gh api repos/pbulsink/HockeyModel/pulls/16 -X PATCH -f state=closed (http block)

If you need me to access, download, or install something from one of these locations, you can either:

Configure Actions setup steps to set up my environment, which run before the firewall is enabled
Add the appropriate URLs or hosts to the custom allowlist in this repository's Copilot coding agent settings (admins only)

Co-authored-by: Copilot <223556219+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com>

…Matrix, dcxG, dcSample, todayDC, remainderSeasonDC, playoffDC) (issue #12) Co-authored-by: Copilot <223556219+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com>

Co-authored-by: Copilot <223556219+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com>

…(issue #12) Co-authored-by: Copilot <223556219+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com>

…o feature/xg-improvement-combined # Please enter a commit message to explain why this merge is necessary, # especially if it merges an updated upstream into a topic branch. # # Lines starting with '#' will be ignored, and an empty message aborts # the commit. Co-authored-by: pbulsink <5419974+pbulsink@users.noreply.github.com>

…t-combined Co-authored-by: pbulsink <5419974+pbulsink@users.noreply.github.com>

…ement-combined Co-authored-by: pbulsink <5419974+pbulsink@users.noreply.github.com>

Co-authored-by: pbulsink <5419974+pbulsink@users.noreply.github.com>

pbulsink · 2026-04-22T01:52:09Z


-  if (
-    system2(
-      "grep",


You're still not doing a grep review of the file before reading it in with read.csv. This has been shown in testing to be a huge speed-up and is mandatory to keep it in line.

Implemented in 409b0aa: load_or_get_nst() now does a grep prefilter by gid and only parses the matched lines plus header with read.csv(text=...), instead of loading the full CSV first.

pbulsink · 2026-04-22T01:53:19Z

  expected_mean = NULL,
  season_percent = NULL,
  include_xG = FALSE,
+  use_xg = FALSE,


Add use_xg to params documented for this function

Addressed in 409b0aa: I added @param use_xg documentation for todayDC() and updated the params-list docs to include optional xg_weight.

pbulsink · 2026-04-22T01:53:37Z

  currentDate = Sys.Date(),
-  save_data = TRUE
+  save_data = TRUE,
+  min_games_for_xg_weight = 30


Update docs for this function

Updated in 409b0aa: updateDC() docs now include min_games_for_xg_weight and the return value now documents xg_weight.

pbulsink · 2026-04-22T01:53:51Z

  expected_mean = NULL,
  season_percent = NULL,
-  draws = TRUE
+  draws = TRUE,


Update docs with new params for this function

Updated in d4609e6: DCPredict() documentation now reflects the expanded params list (including optional xg_weight) alongside the new xG-related arguments.

pbulsink · 2026-04-22T01:56:28Z

@copilot please merge master back into this branch to allow for tests and checks to run better

Agent-Logs-Url: https://github.com/pbulsink/HockeyModel/sessions/0d3f72ed-17f6-49ea-880b-c23247ce1b38 Co-authored-by: pbulsink <5419974+pbulsink@users.noreply.github.com>

…improvement-prs Co-authored-by: pbulsink <5419974+pbulsink@users.noreply.github.com>

Copilot · 2026-04-22T02:02:38Z

@copilot please merge master back into this branch to allow for tests and checks to run better

Merged origin/master into this branch in f022c611. The branch now includes the latest master updates so checks/tests can run against the refreshed base.

pbulsink · 2026-04-25T20:19:24Z

@copilot Please merge master back into this branch to run updated checks and avoid conflicts.

…improvement-prs # Conflicts: # R/api-interface.R # R/dixon-coles.R Co-authored-by: pbulsink <5419974+pbulsink@users.noreply.github.com>

Copilot · 2026-04-25T20:38:03Z

@copilot Please merge master back into this branch to run updated checks and avoid conflicts.

Merged latest origin/master into this branch in 23fbedd. This should unblock updated checks and reduce merge conflict risk.

pbulsink and others added 6 commits April 21, 2026 06:11

Add xG adapter option and tests (issue #12)

0a8d337

Co-authored-by: Copilot <223556219+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com>

Add use_xg support to DC model functions (DCPredict, dcLambda, dcProb…

a05acd4

…Matrix, dcxG, dcSample, todayDC, remainderSeasonDC, playoffDC) (issue #12) Co-authored-by: Copilot <223556219+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com>

Fit xG scaling ratio and add tests for fitted scaling (issue #12)

428ae75

Co-authored-by: Copilot <223556219+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com>

Add xG weight blending and fit_xg_weight optimization (issue #12)

fcede2d

Co-authored-by: Copilot <223556219+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com>

Include fitted xG weight in model params and add backtest_xg_blend() …

1d25dfd

…(issue #12) Co-authored-by: Copilot <223556219+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com>

Initial plan

e65950d

Copilot AI assigned Copilot and pbulsink Apr 22, 2026

Copilot started work on behalf of pbulsink April 22, 2026 01:26 View session

Copilot AI linked an issue Apr 22, 2026 that may be closed by this pull request

Combine xG improvement PRs into a feature branch #22

Open

Copilot AI and others added 4 commits April 22, 2026 01:32

Merge branch feature/xg-weighting-issue-12 into feature/xg-improvemen…

e5897e8

…t-combined Co-authored-by: pbulsink <5419974+pbulsink@users.noreply.github.com>

Merge branch feature/xg-weight-params-backtest into feature/xg-improv…

d061ef9

…ement-combined Co-authored-by: pbulsink <5419974+pbulsink@users.noreply.github.com>

Merge unified xG feature branch into issue 22 branch

dacdee0

Co-authored-by: pbulsink <5419974+pbulsink@users.noreply.github.com>

Copilot AI changed the title ~~[WIP] Combine xG improvement PRs into a feature branch~~ Unify xG enhancement work into one reviewable integration branch Apr 22, 2026

Copilot stopped work on behalf of pbulsink due to an error April 22, 2026 01:34
The "Run ./.github/workflows/install" custom setup step from your .github/workflows/copilot-setup-steps.yml file failed.

Copilot AI requested a review from pbulsink April 22, 2026 01:34

pbulsink requested changes Apr 22, 2026

View reviewed changes

Copilot started work on behalf of pbulsink April 22, 2026 01:54 View session

Copilot AI and others added 2 commits April 22, 2026 01:57

fix: prefilter xg cache with grep and update dixon docs

409b0aa

Agent-Logs-Url: https://github.com/pbulsink/HockeyModel/sessions/0d3f72ed-17f6-49ea-880b-c23247ce1b38 Co-authored-by: pbulsink <5419974+pbulsink@users.noreply.github.com>

docs: clarify params list includes xg_weight in prediction docs

d4609e6

Agent-Logs-Url: https://github.com/pbulsink/HockeyModel/sessions/0d3f72ed-17f6-49ea-880b-c23247ce1b38 Co-authored-by: pbulsink <5419974+pbulsink@users.noreply.github.com>

Copilot stopped work on behalf of pbulsink due to an error April 22, 2026 01:59
The "Run ./.github/workflows/install" custom setup step from your .github/workflows/copilot-setup-steps.yml file failed.

Copilot AI requested a review from pbulsink April 22, 2026 01:59

Copilot started work on behalf of pbulsink April 22, 2026 01:59 View session

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/master' into copilot/combine-xg-…

f022c61

…improvement-prs Co-authored-by: pbulsink <5419974+pbulsink@users.noreply.github.com>

Copilot stopped work on behalf of pbulsink due to an error April 22, 2026 02:03
The "Run ./.github/workflows/install" custom setup step from your .github/workflows/copilot-setup-steps.yml file failed.

Copilot started work on behalf of pbulsink April 25, 2026 20:19 View session

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/master' into copilot/combine-xg-…

23fbedd

…improvement-prs # Conflicts: # R/api-interface.R # R/dixon-coles.R Co-authored-by: pbulsink <5419974+pbulsink@users.noreply.github.com>

Copilot finished work on behalf of pbulsink April 25, 2026 20:38

Navigation Menu

Unify xG enhancement work into one reviewable integration branch - #23

Unify xG enhancement work into one reviewable integration branch#23
pbulsink with Copilot wants to merge 14 commits into
masterfrom
copilot/combine-xg-improvement-prs

Copilot AI commented Apr 22, 2026 •

edited

Loading

Uh oh!

pbulsink Apr 22, 2026

Uh oh!

Copilot AI Apr 22, 2026

Uh oh!

pbulsink Apr 22, 2026

Uh oh!

Copilot AI Apr 22, 2026

Uh oh!

pbulsink Apr 22, 2026

Uh oh!

Copilot AI Apr 22, 2026

Uh oh!

pbulsink Apr 22, 2026

Uh oh!

Copilot AI Apr 22, 2026

Uh oh!

pbulsink commented Apr 22, 2026

Uh oh!

Copilot AI commented Apr 22, 2026

Uh oh!

pbulsink commented Apr 25, 2026

Uh oh!

Copilot AI commented Apr 25, 2026

Uh oh!

This branch has not been deployed

Reviewers

Assignees

Labels

Projects

Milestone

Development

Uh oh!

2 participants

Conversation

Copilot AI commented Apr 22, 2026 • edited Loading Uh oh! There was an error while loading. Please reload this page.

Uh oh!

I tried to connect to the following addresses, but was blocked by firewall rules:

Uh oh!

pbulsink Apr 22, 2026

Choose a reason for hiding this comment

Uh oh!

Copilot AI Apr 22, 2026

Choose a reason for hiding this comment

Uh oh!

pbulsink Apr 22, 2026

Choose a reason for hiding this comment

Uh oh!

Copilot AI Apr 22, 2026

Choose a reason for hiding this comment

Uh oh!

pbulsink Apr 22, 2026

Choose a reason for hiding this comment

Uh oh!

Copilot AI Apr 22, 2026

Choose a reason for hiding this comment

Uh oh!

pbulsink Apr 22, 2026

Choose a reason for hiding this comment

Uh oh!

Copilot AI Apr 22, 2026

Choose a reason for hiding this comment

Uh oh!

pbulsink commented Apr 22, 2026

Uh oh!

Copilot AI commented Apr 22, 2026

Uh oh!

pbulsink commented Apr 25, 2026

Uh oh!

Copilot AI commented Apr 25, 2026

Uh oh!

This branch has not been deployed

Reviewers

Assignees

Labels

Projects

Milestone

Development

Uh oh!

2 participants

Copilot AI commented Apr 22, 2026 •

edited

Loading